Odds Of Hitting Bad Beat Jackpot Poker
- Odds Of Hitting Bad Beat Jackpot Poker Tournament
- Odds Of Hitting Bad Beat Jackpot Poker Odds
- Odds Of Hitting Bad Beat Jackpot Poker Real Money
- The bad beat jackpot can be hit if a player’s four of a kind loses to a straight flush. That makes it slightly easier to win. The odds of hitting either are astronomical, but it does happen.
- Ok, so im playing on a poker site that has a bad beat jackpot. Just outa curiosity can someone calculate the odds of it hi9tting. I belive one player has to lose with 4 of a kind or better. (correct me if im wrong). Im not the greatest with calculating or even what to calculate in this case. Can someone do the math for me and put it in simple terms i.e. 1 in x amount of hands.
Introduction
'Bad beat' is a term that can mean having an outstanding chance of winning a bet, only to still lose. The term can be used in any form of gambling but is most commonly applied to poker. Many poker rooms offer a progressive jackpot for very unlikely bad beats. Various other rules are added to ensure that only surprising bad beats win. Below I present tables of bad beat probabilities, starting with the most liberal rules, and ending with the most stringent. The most stringent rules, the 'Bad Beat Type 3', are the most common, in my experience.
The bad beat jackpot can be hit if a player's four of a kind loses to a straight flush. That makes it slightly easier to win. The odds of hitting either are astronomical, but it does happen. Averaged Bad Beat Jackpot = $300k - 50k = $250k $250k divided by $0.50(rake) = 500k raked pots 500k raked pots is 40% of the total hand played, which is then 1,250,000 hands. So by my estimates the odds of hitting a Bad Beat Jackpot are about 1 in a million. I wonder how close this is to the real thing.
Following are the rules for a type 1 bad beat.
- Both the bad beat and winning hand must be the best possible combination of five cards. In cases where the same hand can be created multiple ways (for example player has AK and the board shows AAKKQ) the player's hole cards will take priority.
- Both the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards.
- A full house must be beaten by a four of a kind or higher.
The rules for a type 2 bad beat are the same as type 1, plus any four of a kind, whether the bad beat hand or winning hand, must contain a pocket pair.
The rules for a type 3 bad beat are the same as type 2, plus a full house may not make use of a three of a kind entirely on the board.
In my experience, is the most common format for bad beat rules is type 3. The additional rule for type 3 makes very little difference, compared to type 2.
The following table shows the probability of each bad beat hand under all three types of rules. The table is based on a ten-player game in which nobody ever folds. The probabilities are for any pair of players meeting the qualifying rules. If you want to know YOUR probability of winning, you should divide the probability in the table by 10.
Bad Beat Probabilities
| Bad Beat Hand | Type 1 | Type 2 | Type 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any full house | 0.00203329 | 0.00050305 | 0.00049508 |
| Full house, three 3's or higher | 0.00189512 | 0.00046978 | 0.00046204 |
| Full house, three 4's or higher | 0.00175159 | 0.00043444 | 0.00042728 |
| Full house, three 5's or higher | 0.00160333 | 0.00039706 | 0.00039028 |
| Full house, three 6's or higher | 0.00144965 | 0.00035741 | 0.00035145 |
| Full house, three 7's or higher | 0.0012936 | 0.00031767 | 0.00031266 |
| Full house, three 8's or higher | 0.00113492 | 0.00027775 | 0.00027355 |
| Full house, three 9's or higher | 0.00097379 | 0.00023772 | 0.00023445 |
| Full house, three T's or higher | 0.00081113 | 0.00019759 | 0.00019503 |
| Full house, three J's or higher | 0.00064763 | 0.00015708 | 0.00015509 |
| Full house, three Q's or higher | 0.00048533 | 0.00011838 | 0.00011682 |
| Full house, three K's or higher | 0.00032561 | 0.00008130 | 0.00008033 |
| Full house, three A's or higher | 0.00016964 | 0.00004608 | 0.00004579 |
| Full house, aces full of 3's or higher | 0.00016004 | 0.00004350 | 0.00004322 |
| Full house, aces full of 4's or higher | 0.00014986 | 0.00004080 | 0.00004052 |
| Full house, aces full of 5's or higher | 0.00013898 | 0.00003797 | 0.00003763 |
| Full house, aces full of 6's or higher | 0.00012749 | 0.00003504 | 0.00003469 |
| Full house, aces full of 7's or higher | 0.00011580 | 0.00003233 | 0.00003203 |
| Full house, aces full of 8's or higher | 0.00010347 | 0.00002957 | 0.00002925 |
| Full house, aces full of 9's or higher | 0.00009067 | 0.00002673 | 0.00002645 |
| Full house, aces full of T's or higher | 0.00007714 | 0.00002383 | 0.00002359 |
| Full house, aces full of J's or higher | 0.00006286 | 0.00002064 | 0.0000204 |
| Full house, aces full of Q's or higher | 0.00004793 | 0.00001738 | 0.00001721 |
| Full house, aces full of K's or higher | 0.00003230 | 0.00001408 | 0.00001402 |
| Any four of a kind | 0.00001601 | 0.00001086 | 0.00001081 |
| Four 3's or higher | 0.00001437 | 0.00000996 | 0.00000992 |
| Four 4's or higher | 0.0000127 | 0.00000900 | 0.00000902 |
| Four 5's or higher | 0.00001099 | 0.00000805 | 0.00000804 |
| Four 6's or higher | 0.00000934 | 0.00000705 | 0.00000707 |
| Four 7's or higher | 0.0000078 | 0.00000613 | 0.00000611 |
| Four 8's or higher | 0.0000064 | 0.00000525 | 0.00000519 |
| Four 9's or higher | 0.00000519 | 0.00000439 | 0.00000435 |
| Four T's or higher | 0.00000414 | 0.00000359 | 0.00000357 |
| Four J's or higher | 0.00000317 | 0.00000287 | 0.00000285 |
| Four Q's or higher | 0.00000246 | 0.00000226 | 0.00000224 |
| Four K's or higher | 0.00000193 | 0.00000180 | 0.00000179 |
| Four A's or higher | 0.00000157 | 0.00000149 | 0.00000147 |
| Any straight flush | 0.0000012 | 0.00000122 | 0.00000121 |
| Straight flush 6 high or higher | 0.00000105 | 0.00000107 | 0.00000105 |
| Straight flush 7 high or higher | 0.00000089 | 0.00000091 | 0.00000090 |
| Straight flush 8 high or higher | 0.00000073 | 0.00000074 | 0.00000074 |
| Straight flush 9 high or higher | 0.00000056 | 0.00000059 | 0.00000058 |
| Straight flush T high or higher | 0.00000041 | 0.00000043 | 0.00000042 |
| Straight flush J high or higher | 0.00000028 | 0.00000027 | 0.00000027 |
| Straight flush Q high or higher | 0.00000012 | 0.00000012 | 0.00000012 |
Methodology
The above tables are the result of random simulations of about 2.5 billion rounds each.
Further Reading
The video poker variant World Series of Poker - Final Table Bonus features a bad beat jackpot. See my section on that game for more information.
Brian Alspach has a very good page on Texas Hold'em, including a section on the Bad Beat Jackpot at Party Poker.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
It seems like the world of online poker is always coming up with some great idea to draw new players to the game. And bad beat jackpots certainly fit this bill since they have drawing power due to the large amount of cash involved. Of course, you have virtually no chance of winning this cash if you’re like the masses that go into bad beat jackpot rooms with no strategy. With that in mind, let’s look at some simple strategies you can use.
Odds Of Hitting Bad Beat Jackpot Poker Tournament
When you’re going for any kind of jackpot you, need to keep in mind that you’re going to be playing more drawing hands. It is important to play pretty much any suited connectors you are dealt, and also the low pocket pairs you receive. Of course percentages show that players are more likely to win a bad beat jackpot with a straight flush, not a 4-of-a-kind, so this makes suited connectors even more valuable. And it sometimes gets tricky because people will get lost looking for the shifty fourth card!
Odds Of Hitting Bad Beat Jackpot Poker Odds
But just because suited connectors are more valuable doesn’t mean you should avoid looking for the 4-of-a-kind because it will increase your chances of winning the bad beat jackpot. Having low pocket pairs are very valuable when you have the opportunity to see the flop and turn without using a lot of chips!
Odds Of Hitting Bad Beat Jackpot Poker Real Money
Still, keep in mind not to get lost looking for the 4-of-a-kind when you miss the flop altogether. A big mistake players make while playing the bad beat jackpot is using too many chips just to see the turn because they want those two cards for the 4-of-a-kind or straight flush. Your odds aren’t very good for hitting these hands, so you might as well hold out for a better flop.